Equities hit record highs this week while oil and bond yields stayed near multi year extremes.

By Wednesday, that gap narrowed as oil approached 100 dollars and rate hike fears returned.

The dominant driver early in the week was technology.

The Nasdaq 100 hit a fresh peak Monday. The S&P 500 followed Tuesday with its first record since August.

Nvidia's market value neared 6 trillion dollars. AMD CEO Lisa Su said chip demand should stay very high over the next few years.

• OpenAI is in talks on a 30 billion dollar funding round
• SpaceX is seeking 40 billion dollars to buy Nvidia chips

Markets are rewarding AI investment despite the cost of capital.

The pressure came from energy and bonds.

US oil fell below 90 dollars Monday. By Wednesday, Brent settled near 100 as Iranian attacks on vessels in Hormuz increased.

Ten year yields stayed close to their highest since 2002, even after a strong 39 billion dollar bond sale.

Investors want more compensation for inflation, government spending and AI related borrowing.

Minutes showed all 19 officials supported the September hike. Many saw it as a precaution against stronger inflation.

Money markets now price another hike by year end.

The S&P 500 slipped from its record Wednesday, and Bitcoin also fell.

Earlier in the week, the euro hit its weakest since May 2025 on political turmoil and fiscal concerns.

Geopolitics → Oil → Inflation → Federal Reserve → Equity leadership

• AI leadership is carrying equities to record highs
• Oil is back near 100 dollars on Hormuz tensions
• Ten year yields remain close to a 2002 high
• The Fed is signaling it is not finished tightening
• Earnings season begins next week with expectations elevated

Equities are betting earnings can outrun the cost of money.

Oil and yields are testing that bet.

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