Bond yields spent the week climbing on an Iran standoff, then softer inflation data pulled the market back from the edge on the final day.

Thirty year yields hit a 2002 high before cooler PCE numbers gave the Fed room to pause.

The dominant driver early in the week was a breakdown in US-Iran talks.

Brent held near 105 dollars Monday as hopes for a political breakthrough faded. Tehran insisted on a cease-fire proposal Trump had already rejected.

Trump is reportedly willing to lift sanctions and release blocked funds in exchange for concrete progress on a nuclear deal.

• The S&P 500 erased the month's gains
• Ten year yields hit a nearly two decade high
• Money markets raised bets on an October hike

By Tuesday, the Trump administration ordered another release from emergency oil reserves. Brent fell below 103 dollars, though yields kept climbing regardless.

Bond markets stayed under pressure even as oil eased, with investors demanding more compensation for persistent inflation risk and AI related corporate borrowing.

Thirty year yields reached their highest level since 2002. New York Fed President Williams said one more hike this year may be appropriate, but stressed no urgency to move again soon.

Core PCE data changed the tone on Wednesday. It rose a smaller than expected 0.2 percent in August, with the prior month revised down.

• October hike odds fell below 40 percent
• The dollar weakened into month end
• Thirty year yields held steady rather than climbing further

Growth data stayed resilient throughout. Consumer spending rose at its fastest pace in over a year, and hiring picked up in September.

Even amid the volatility, AI infrastructure conviction held firm.

Nvidia raised its buyback plan by a record 150 billion dollars, underscoring Jensen Huang's confidence in the company's growth trajectory.

That single move stood apart from a week otherwise dominated by oil and yields.

Geopolitics → Oil → Inflation → Federal Reserve → Equity leadership

• The Iran standoff keeps oil elevated despite emergency reserve releases
• Long term yields sit at multi-decade highs on persistent inflation demand
• Core PCE came in soft, pulling October hike odds below 40 percent
• Growth data remains resilient despite the inflation and rate pressure
• AI capex conviction is holding even as broader sentiment stays fragile

Inflation data bought the Fed room this week.

Geopolitics still decides how long that room lasts.

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