The PCE data on Wednesday bought the Fed room, and geopolitics was always going to decide how long that room lasted.

Today, two different forces both extended it, for different reasons.

Ten year yields pulled back from their highest levels since 2002, the same level Wednesday's inflation data had already started easing.

Some of that was positioning unwinding, crowded trades coming off.

Some of it was France's fiscal outlook pushing demand toward haven assets, a reminder that US rate policy isn't the only thing moving US Treasuries right now.

Then came the Fed voices.

Williams had already said there's no urgency to hike again after September.

Today, Vice Chair Jefferson echoed it, saying policymakers may need more time to determine whether further increases are necessary.

Two Fed officials, on consecutive days, both choosing patience over urgency.

That's the thesis.

None of the underlying pressure this week has actually resolved.

Oil advanced again today on continued geopolitical risk, with reports the Pentagon is considering sending another aircraft carrier and 10,000 additional troops to the Middle East.

Manufacturing data showed a sharp increase in raw material prices, which initially pulled the S&P 500 lower before the Treasury rally reversed it.

The index recovered. The input costs that triggered the dip in the first place didn't.

"Is the Fed done hiking?"

"Is 'no urgency' a policy stance, or a placeholder until oil forces their hand again?"

A bond market rallying on unwound positioning and French fiscal concerns isn't the same as a bond market rallying on resolved inflation risk.

Strengthen your edge. See the risk MT5 hides.