From Monday through Wednesday, the oil shock hadn't resolved, it had just stopped getting worse for a day.

Global bond yields sat at their highest since 2008. Over half the market was pricing a hike this month from four major central banks.

Today, the S&P 500 posted its best day in a month.

One Fed official did that.

Waller said he'd support holding rates steady if price pressures keep easing.

Money markets immediately pulled back their September hike odds. Megacaps rallied. The dollar fell to its lowest level since May. Bitcoin pushed above 80,000 dollars.

Waller was clear about the condition attached.

He said his next decision will be heavily influenced by August inflation data, arriving next week.

The market rallied on a conditional statement, ahead of the data that condition depends on.

That's the thesis.

Nothing about this week's underlying pressure actually eased.

Oil was still near 95 dollars as of Wednesday. Global yields were still at a 17 year high. Diesel and European natural gas were both sitting at multi-month peaks.

None of that reversed today. What moved was the market's read on how the Fed will respond to it, based on one official's conditional framing of data that hasn't printed yet.

There's a second divergence sitting underneath the rally.

The yen rose today on increased bets for a Japanese rate hike, with markets on alert for intervention.

The dollar fell on reduced Fed hike odds in the same session.

Two central banks, moving in opposite directions, both repricing on speculation rather than confirmed policy.

"Will the Fed hike in September?"

"How much of today's move depends on next week's inflation data matching what Waller is hoping to see?"

A rally built on what a Fed official said he'd do if the data cooperates isn't the same as the data actually cooperating.

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