Two weeks ago, the market was pricing resolution in the Strait of Hormuz.

This week, it's pricing escalation again.

The pattern is becoming familiar.

Last week told a relief story.

Iran signalled openness to a deal.

Oil fell from near 90 dollars to around 75.

Equities added roughly 3.7 trillion dollars in value.

Diplomacy did more to move markets than data.

This week reversed that story.

Iran's naval forces struck targets near the strait's entrance.

Reports emerged of Iran seeking to block US and Israeli vessels and demand compensation from hostile countries before granting passage.

Brent climbed back above 82 dollars.

The S&P 500 has now declined for a second straight day.

The market had been set up to trade labour data this week.

The week opened by framing it clearly, building toward Friday's payrolls as the defining release.

Instead, oil is back in control of the narrative, and it's arriving three days before the data it was supposed to make room for.

That's the thesis.

Geopolitical risk hasn't been priced once and resolved.

It's being repriced every time the diplomatic picture shifts, and this is the second full reversal in as many weeks.

Underneath it, credit markets are telling a steadier story.

Alphabet is raising 25 billion dollars through a bond sale, and demand has been strong enough to build one of the year's largest order books for AI debt.

Equity volatility and credit conviction aren't moving together right now.

"Will Hormuz be resolved?"

"How much of your positioning depends on it staying resolved?"

A risk that can reverse twice in two weeks isn't one to hold an opinion on.

It's one to size for.

Strengthen your edge. See the risk MT5 hides.