PGI
This week isn't about a single data point.
It's about whether US inflation, producer prices, and consumer spending confirm each other, while a steady run of central bank speakers shapes policy narrative.
(Forecasts vs previous data below, actuals will drive the move)
Holidays Thin The Market
Thin liquidity across Japan and North America as markets position ahead of a heavy inflation and central bank week.
IMF Takes The Stage
The IMF's global growth and stability assessments set the macro tone, with meetings continuing through to Saturday.
US Inflation Takes Centre Stage
This is the key day of the week.
- CPI → inflation trend
- Core CPI → underlying price pressures
- Lagarde, Bailey, Macklem → policy guidance across three central banks
- Bank earnings → macro meets equities
Inflation takes centre stage.
Producer Prices And Consumers Collide
Producer prices test whether Wednesday's CPI read holds, while retail sales and manufacturing data show how demand is responding.
Central Bank Voices Close The Week
Warsh, Bailey, and Macklem provide the week's final policy guidance, with a further Bailey appearance scheduled for Saturday.
Central Bank Backdrop, Rates Remain Restrictive
Interest rate divergence continues to shape capital flows across global markets.
The Bigger Picture
- US inflation remains the dominant macro theme
- Producer prices and retail sales test the strength of the price and demand picture
- Central bank commentary continues to shape policy expectations
- Bank earnings offer a read on how markets are absorbing the macro backdrop
Everything builds into inflation vs growth vs policy.
Actual data vs expectations = the move.
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