This week isn't about a rate decision.

It's about whether central bank communication, led by the FOMC Minutes and speeches from Waller, Bailey, and Ueda, continues to support the current policy outlook.

(Forecasts vs previous data below, actuals will drive the move)

The week begins with a health check on the US services sector, offering an early indication of economic momentum.

Ueda offers a read on the Bank of Japan's policy outlook, while Canadian business activity adds a growth check.

This is the key day of the week.

• FOMC Minutes → insight into the Fed's thinking
• Policy debate → how members weigh inflation against growth
• Sets the tone for Thursday's Waller speech

Policy takes centre stage.

Fed and BOE commentary continues the policy debate, while Pepsi's results add a read on consumer demand.

Canadian employment and US consumer sentiment provide the week's final read on labour momentum and household outlook.

Interest rate divergence continues to shape capital flows across global markets.

• Central bank communication is the week's primary driver
• FOMC Minutes offer the clearest read on the Fed's thinking
• Canadian labour data closes the week with an employment check
• Consumer sentiment and inflation expectations frame the household outlook

Everything builds into inflation vs growth vs policy.

Actual data vs expectations = the move.

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