PGI
This week isn't about US data.
It's about the ECB, with a forecast rate hike arriving alongside a heavy run of Federal Reserve inflation data before the weekend.
(Forecasts vs previous data below, actuals will drive the move)
Markets Open Quietly
Thin liquidity across North America as markets position ahead of the week's central bank and inflation calendar.
UK Policy Under Scrutiny
Parliamentary testimony offers early insight into the Bank of England's thinking ahead of the week's heavier data.
Lagarde Speaks, Apple Takes The Stage
Early ECB commentary sets the tone ahead of Thursday's rate decision, while Apple's event draws equity market attention.
The ECB Decides
This is the key day of the week.
- Main Refinancing Rate → a forecast hike would mark a shift in ECB policy
- ECB Press Conference → forward guidance on the pace of tightening
- US Producer Prices → confirmation of upstream inflation pressure
- Oracle earnings → macro meets equities
Policy takes centre stage.
UK Growth And US Inflation Close The Week
US inflation data closes the week, testing whether Thursday's ECB move was justified by the broader price backdrop.
Central Bank Backdrop, Rates Remain Restrictive
Interest rate divergence continues to shape capital flows across global markets.
The Bigger Picture
- The ECB's forecast rate hike is the week's most significant policy signal
- US inflation data will test whether price pressure is broadening or easing
- Producer prices offer an early read on where CPI is headed next
- Earnings from Apple and Oracle keep macro and equities intertwined
Everything builds into inflation vs growth vs policy.
Actual data vs expectations = the move.
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