This week isn't about a single inflation report.

It's about the Fed's preferred inflation gauge landing on the same day as Nvidia earnings, before Jackson Hole takes over the back half of the week.

(Forecasts vs previous data below, actuals will drive the move)

Markets open the week with early commentary from the Treasury ahead of a heavy data and earnings calendar.

A steady read on consumer confidence sets the tone before Wednesday's inflation and growth data.

This is the key day of the week.

• Core PCE → the Fed's preferred inflation gauge
• Prelim GDP → confirmation of growth momentum
• Australian CPI → early inflation signal into the session
• Nvidia earnings → macro meets equities

Inflation, growth, and earnings collide.

Labour data provides a final checkpoint before central bankers gather for Jackson Hole.

Warsh speaks from Jackson Hole as markets close the week weighing consumer sentiment against a substantial payrolls revision, with the symposium continuing into Saturday.

Interest rate divergence continues to shape capital flows across global markets.

• Core PCE remains the week's most important inflation release
• Jackson Hole will shape forward guidance into the autumn
• Nvidia earnings test whether equity strength can hold alongside macro data
• The payrolls revision adds a fresh layer of uncertainty to the labour market picture

Everything builds into inflation vs growth vs policy.

Actual data vs expectations = the move.

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