PGI
This week isn't about central bank decisions.
It's about whether UK inflation and labour data hold up while the Fed's meeting minutes offer the next signal on the rate path.
(Forecasts vs previous data below, actuals will drive the move)
Canada Opens The Week
Canadian inflation sets an early tone before the UK data begins to dominate the calendar.
UK Labour Market In Focus
Labour softness against wage growth becomes the first test of the week's UK narrative.
UK Inflation And Fed Minutes
This is the key day of the week.
- UK CPI → confirmation of the inflation trend
- Lagarde speech → ECB policy signal
- FOMC Minutes → insight into the Fed's internal thinking
- Markets reassess whether inflation and policy remain aligned
Inflation and policy collide.
Employment And Manufacturing Checks
Australian employment and US manufacturing activity provide a global growth check ahead of Friday's PMIs.
PMIs Close The Week
UK retail sales and a full round of European PMIs provide the week's final read on consumer and business activity.
Central Bank Backdrop, Rates Remain Restrictive
Interest rate divergence continues to shape capital flows across global markets.
The Bigger Picture
- UK inflation and labour data remain the week's dominant theme
- FOMC Minutes offer the next signal on the Fed's rate path
- Global PMIs close the week with a business activity check
- Growth and inflation data continue to test the current policy outlook
Everything builds into inflation vs growth vs policy.
Actual data vs expectations = the move.
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