PGI
PGI20 July 2026
This week isn't starting with expectations.
It's starting with data already shifting the narrative.
Monday
What Just Happened
Japan
Bank Holiday
Canada Inflation, Cooling Bias
CPI m/m-0.4% vs -0.2% forecast
Median CPI y/y1.9% vs 2.1% forecast
Trimmed CPI y/y1.8% vs 2.0% forecast
Common CPI y/y2.6% vs 2.5% forecast
New Zealand Inflation, Hotter Than Expected
CPI q/q1.5% vs 1.4% forecast
Early signal
- Canada → disinflation strengthening
- New Zealand → inflation re-accelerating
Divergence is back.
Tuesday
UK Labour Market
Claimant Count Change6.7K vs 1.3K previous
Average Earnings4.3% vs 4.4%
Labour softness vs wage stickinesspolicy tension.
Wednesday
Inflation And Big Tech
UK CPI y/y2.7% vs 2.8%
Earnings
Google
Tesla
Macro meets equities.
Thursday
Policy And Employment
Australia Jobs
Employment Change16.4K vs 40.3K
Unemployment4.4%
ECB
Rate2.40%
Press Conference
US
Unemployment Claims211K vs 208K
Labour and central banks combine for the week's key volatility trigger.
Friday
Growth Signals
UK Retail Sales-0.3% vs 1.2%
PMIs
France Manufacturing and Services
Germany Manufacturing and Services
UK Manufacturing and Services
Forward-looking growth check closes the week.
Rates, Still Restrictive
AUD4.35%
USD3.75%
GBP3.75%
NZD2.50%
EUR2.40%
CAD2.25%
JPY1.00%
CHF0.00%
The Real Story
- Inflation divergence is reappearing
- Labour markets remain the policy anchor
- Central banks are still not aligned
- Growth data will test the soft landing narrative
This week starts with answers, not questions.
Now markets react.
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