PGI
This week isn't about one central bank.
It's about whether inflation is cooling enough for policymakers to keep easing, or whether higher prices force them to stay restrictive for longer.
(Forecasts vs previous data below, actuals will drive the move)
Geopolitics Sets The Tone
In Europe, ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Markets begin the week focused on geopolitics before attention shifts to central banks and inflation.
Asia Central Banks Take Centre Stage
Markets assess whether policymakers remain comfortable with current policy settings or begin signalling a shift in direction.
Inflation And The Fed Collide
This is the key day of the week.
- UK CPI → BOE expectations
- Retail sales → consumer strength
- FOMC projections → future rate path
- Powell's guidance → market direction
Inflation and policy collide.
Global Central Banks Respond
The market digests Wednesday's Fed decision while assessing how other central banks are positioning.
Consumer Strength In Focus
A quieter finish to the week, with UK consumer activity providing the final major macro signal.
Central Bank Backdrop, Rates Remain Restrictive
Divergence continues to drive FX flows.
The Bigger Picture
- Inflation remains the key policy driver
- The Fed's projections may matter more than the rate decision itself
- Labour markets continue to show resilience
- Central banks remain cautious despite easing inflation
Everything builds into inflation vs growth vs policy.
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