PGI
This week isn't about growth.
It's about inflation, central banks, and whether rate cuts can continue in the face of rising price pressures.
(Forecasts vs previous data below, actuals will drive the move)
Energy Markets Set The Tone
OPEC Meetings
AUD Bank Holiday
Oil markets begin the week in focus as traders assess supply, production targets, and the inflation implications of energy prices.
Markets Await Inflation Data
No major scheduled releases.
Positioning is likely to dominate as markets prepare for Wednesday's US CPI report and the Bank of Canada decision.
Inflation And Central Banks Collide
- US CPI → Fed rate expectations
- Core inflation → underlying price pressures
- BOC decision → Canadian policy outlook
Inflation and policy collide.
Policy Expectations Stay In Focus
Markets assess whether producer inflation confirms or contradicts Wednesday's CPI data.
Growth Returns To The Spotlight
After a week dominated by inflation and central banks, attention shifts back to economic activity and growth momentum.
Central Bank Backdrop, Rates Remain Restrictive
Divergence continues to drive FX flows.
The Bigger Picture
- Inflation remains the primary macro driver
- Central banks are balancing inflation against slowing growth
- Energy markets remain a wildcard through OPEC
- Markets remain highly sensitive to policy expectations
Everything builds into inflation vs growth vs policy.
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