Canadian employment just posted its worst miss in months.
FX positioning moved defensive across the board regardless.
Macro Breakdown
Canada's labour market cracked hard.
Employment change came in at -68.3K against a 6.1K forecast, pushing unemployment up to 6.5% from 6.4%.
US services activity softened too.
ISM Services slipped to 54.9 against a 55.1 forecast, down from 55.4 the month before.
Canadian business activity missed sharply as well. Ivey PMI fell to 58.2 against a 65.2 forecast, a steep drop from 64.3 prior.
US consumer sentiment weakened further, falling to 46.3 against a 47.5 forecast.
Inflation expectations ticked higher, to 4.7% from 4.6%.
Unemployment claims came in better than expected, at 197K against a 200K forecast.
The week carried heavy Fed and central bank commentary, FOMC Minutes, Waller, Bailey, but no fresh hard data from any of them.
Positioning (COT)
Every major FX short widened sharply this week.
AUD shorts jumped from -63.2K to -98.6K, one of the largest single-week moves in this dataset.
EUR shorts widened just as sharply, from -63.3K to -99.3K.
GBP shorts extended to -97.6K from -91.1K.
JPY longs held broadly steady, up slightly to 62.3K from 55.4K.
Gold longs pulled back, to 210.3K from 218.6K. Oil longs eased too, to 99.1K from 109.5K.
S&P 500 shorts widened again, to -154.1K from -142.5K, now the deepest short position recorded in this dataset.
Core Insight
AUD and EUR shorts nearly doubling in the same week, alongside a Canadian jobs miss this severe, points to positioning moving on risk appetite broadly, not on any single country's data.
Gold and oil both easing at the same time is the detail that cuts against a clean risk-off read. A market purely bracing for weaker growth would typically see gold build, not retreat.
The clearer signal sits in equities. S&P 500 shorts have now widened for six consecutive weeks, through hikes, holds, strong data and weak data alike.
That consistency is the story this week's individual releases sit inside.
Forward Look
Next week brings the first US CPI print since the jobs data wobble.
Core CPI is forecast to rise to 2.5% y/y, with headline expected to jump to 3.6% from 3.4%.
Australian employment, UK GDP, US PPI, retail sales, and Philly Fed manufacturing round out the week, with Fed Chairman Warsh speaking Friday.
Current policy rates
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