PGI
European and Australian data surprised to the upside this week.
Positioning still turned more defensive, not less.
Macro Breakdown
European PMIs split sharply by sector.
French services beat significantly, at 51.4 against a 48.3 forecast. German services beat too, coming in at 52.9 versus 49.9 forecast.
Manufacturing told the opposite story in both countries, with France and Germany both missing their manufacturing forecasts. UK PMIs moved the other way, manufacturing beat while services missed.
Australia's labour market blew past expectations. Employment change came in at 39.5K against a 21.5K forecast, though unemployment ticked up slightly to 4.6%.
The SNB held its policy rate at 0.00%, as expected.
US data leaned resilient. Unemployment claims fell to 197K, below forecast, and revised consumer sentiment beat at 48.1 against 47.4 forecast.
Positioning (COT)
Every major FX short deepened this week, and by a wide margin.
AUD shorts widened to -46.8K from -38.9K, despite the strongest jobs beat of the week.
EUR shorts nearly doubled, from -27K to -52.3K, even with services PMIs surprising higher in both France and Germany.
GBP shorts deepened sharply too, from -58.7K to -82.6K.
JPY reversed hard again, longs cut from 120.4K to 72K, the third significant swing in as many weeks.
Gold eased slightly to 225.9K. Oil longs built further, to 141.1K from 135.9K.
S&P 500 shorts widened once more, to -133.2K from -100.5K, now the deepest short position in this dataset and the fourth straight week of widening.
Core Insight
Strong data didn't buy conviction anywhere this week.
Australia's jobs beat didn't stop AUD shorts from deepening. European services PMIs beat in both major economies, and EUR shorts nearly doubled anyway.
The clearest signal sits in equities. S&P 500 shorts have now widened for four consecutive weeks, building through hikes, holds, and data beats alike. That consistency, regardless of what each week's individual releases show, suggests positioning is tracking something broader than any single data point right now.
Forward Look
Next week is the heaviest of the month.
The RBA decides Tuesday, followed by Australian CPI, German prelim CPI, and US Core PCE Wednesday. ADP, ISM Manufacturing, and Eurozone flash CPI round out the week, before Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls.
Current policy rates
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