The Fed hiked for the first time in three years.
JPY positioning moved further than the rate decision itself.
Macro Breakdown
The Fed delivered its expected hike, taking rates to 4.00% from 3.75%.
Retail sales beat sharply. Core retail sales rose 1.4% against a 0.6% forecast, and headline retail sales came in at 1.2% versus 0.8% expected.
UK CPI y/y rose to 3.1%, in line with forecast but up from 2.9% prior.
UK claimant count jumped to 27.8K, well above the 8.3K forecast.
Philly Fed manufacturing beat at 37.8 against a 31.3 forecast, and unemployment claims fell to 196K.
The BOE held at 3.75%, unchanged 3-0-6 vote split. The BOJ hiked to below 1.25%, as forecast.
UK retail sales beat too, at 0.5% against a -0.2% forecast.
Positioning (COT)
JPY positioning is the number that stands out.
Longs collapsed from 120.4K to 10.8K, one of the sharpest single-week reversals in this dataset, arriving in the same week the BOJ delivered its own hike.
EUR shorts narrowed to -27K from -42.6K.
AUD shorts widened slightly, to -38.9K from -34.9K. GBP held close to flat at -58.7K.
Gold and oil both held broadly steady, at 230.3K and 135.9K respectively.
S&P 500 shorts widened sharply, to -100.5K from -76K, the deepest short position in this dataset.
Core Insight
A BOJ hike would typically support continued yen strength in positioning. Instead, JPY longs were slashed by more than 90%.
That's the opposite of what the rate decision itself would suggest, and it happened in the same week the Fed also hiked.
Equity positioning moved further into short territory at the same time, extending a run that has now widened in back-to-back weeks. Three central banks delivered hikes or holds this week, and positioning across JPY and the S&P 500 both moved away from what those decisions would typically support.
Forward Look
Next week is lighter on central bank action but carries its own test.
Australian employment reports Thursday, alongside the SNB's own rate decision, expected to hold at 0.00%. Flash PMIs across France, Germany, and the UK land Wednesday, and revised US consumer sentiment closes the week.
Current policy rates
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