The ECB delivered its rate hike as forecast.

EUR shorts widened anyway.

US inflation ran a touch hotter than expected. Core CPI m/m came in at 0.3% against a 0.2% forecast.

Headline CPI matched forecast at 0.4% m/m, holding annual CPI at 3.4%.

Producer prices told a mixed story. PPI m/m held at 0.4%, double the prior month's reading, while core PPI came in slightly below forecast at 0.2%.

The real shock sat in sentiment. Consumer confidence collapsed to 47.8, well below the 51.0 forecast and sharply down from 51.7 prior.

Inflation expectations jumped to 4.6% from 4.0% in the same report.

UK GDP beat comfortably at 0.4% m/m against a flat forecast.

The ECB hiked its main refinancing rate to 2.65% from 2.40%, exactly as forecast.

JPY is the story this week, and it isn't close.

Positioning flipped from -92.2K short to +10.8K net long, one of the largest single-week swings in this dataset.

EUR moved the opposite way to what the ECB hike would suggest. Shorts widened to -42.6K from -24.9K.

GBP shorts also widened, to -58.8K from -49.6K.

AUD shorts narrowed slightly, to -34.9K from -39.4K.

Gold and oil both built further, to 232K and 136.6K respectively.

S&P 500 positioning barely moved, holding near -76K for a second straight week.

A rate hike normally draws capital toward a currency. EUR shorts widened instead.

That gap matters more than the ECB decision itself. The market isn't rewarding the hike with conviction, which suggests positioning is more focused on what comes next than what was just delivered.

The bigger signal sits in US sentiment.

Confidence cratered and inflation expectations spiked in the same report, even as the headline CPI number came in exactly as forecast.

Underlying sentiment is cracking faster than the data itself is showing.

Next week is the heaviest of the quarter.

The Fed decides Wednesday alongside fresh economic projections. The BOE follows Thursday, expected to hold at 3.75%. The BOJ closes the week Friday, with a forecast hike to below 1.25% from below 1.00%.

UK CPI, US retail sales, and Canadian CPI all land in between.

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