US payrolls just beat forecast by nearly three times.

Canada's fell off a cliff in the same report.

Non-Farm Payrolls surged to 162K against a 55K forecast, unemployment holding steady at 4.1% and wage growth in line at 0.3%.

Canada moved in the opposite direction entirely. Employment change came in at -41.7K versus a 15.1K forecast, even as its unemployment rate held flat.

ISM Services beat at 55.4 against 54.2 forecast. ISM Manufacturing missed slightly at 54.6, and manufacturing prices ran hotter than expected at 71.1.

JOLTS and ADP both missed, at 7.27M and 38K respectively.

The RBNZ delivered its forecast hike, taking the Official Cash Rate to 2.75% from 2.50%. The BOC held at 2.25%, as expected.

Eurozone inflation was the standout print.

Headline CPI flash jumped to 3.3% from 2.9% the month before, even as core CPI came in slightly below forecast at 2.4%.

German prelim CPI softened sharply to 0.2%, down from 0.8% prior.

Positioning moved in the direction the payrolls beat would suggest, mostly.

EUR shorts narrowed sharply, from -36.4K to -24.9K, the largest improvement in this data set for weeks.

AUD shorts also narrowed, to -39.4K from -44.5K.

JPY told a different story. Shorts deepened notably, to -92.2K from -63.3K, the sharpest single-week move across the majors.

GBP shorts widened slightly, to -49.6K from -44.5K.

Gold longs pulled back for the first time in months, to 228.1K from 243.3K.

Oil longs built further, to 129.9K from 123.4K.

S&P 500 shorts widened again, to -75.9K from -68K, extending a run that hasn't reversed since equity positioning flipped defensive three weeks ago.

A payrolls beat this large would normally support risk appetite across the board. It didn't extend to equities.

S&P 500 shorts have now widened in consecutive weeks, even through a strong jobs report and a pullback in gold that would usually signal reduced hedging demand.

That combination, equity caution building while the safe-haven bid eases, suggests the market isn't reacting to labour data the way the headline number implies.

The gap sits there: strong US jobs, a weakening Canadian labour market in the same release, and equity positioning still leaning defensive regardless.

Next week brings the ECB's own decision, and the forecast itself is the story.

Consensus points to a hike to 2.65% from 2.40%, which would be the first shift in ECB policy in this dataset's history.

That lands alongside German GDP, UK GDP, US CPI, and PPI.

US CPI is expected to hold at 3.4% y/y, the first full inflation read since this week's jobs data.

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