PGI28 August 2026

The number everyone was bracing for came in nowhere near the fear.

Everything else this week has to be read against that.

Macro Breakdown

The benchmark payrolls revision landed at -79K, a fraction of the -911K some had been pricing as a risk.

Core PCE held in line at 0.2% m/m, the Fed's preferred gauge showing no fresh surprise.

But the GDP price index ran hotter than forecast, at 6.4% versus 6.2%, a reminder that price pressure hasn't fully faded even as growth held steady at 1.5%.

Unemployment claims fell to 203K, better than both forecast and the prior reading.

Consumer confidence missed, dropping to 89.4, and inflation expectations eased to 4.0% from 4.3%.

Consumer sentiment ticked up slightly to 51.7.

Australia's CPI ran hot across the board, headline at 3.5% against 3.3% forecast.

Taken together, this was a week of the worst-case labour outcome not materialising, alongside inflation signals that stayed mixed rather than clean.

Positioning (COT)

FX and equities told two different stories this week, and the gap is wide.

EUR shorts nearly halved, from -59.1K to -36.4K. GBP shorts narrowed sharply too, from -54.6K to -44.5K. That's broad dollar softness being priced into positioning.

JPY moved the other way, shorts widening to -63.3K from -52.9K. AUD held close to flat at -44.5K.

Gold longs extended again, to 243.3K from 222.2K, continuing a build that hasn't paused in months.

S&P 500 positioning is where the real shift sits. Shorts deepened sharply, from -10.6K to -68K, the largest weekly move in this data set.

Core Insight

FX positioning turned more dollar-negative this week. Equity positioning turned sharply more defensive. Gold kept climbing through both.

That's not one narrative. It's two desks reading the same week differently. The currency market is leaning into a weaker dollar path. The equity market is hedging against something it isn't fully pricing in the FX data at all.

A payrolls revision that came in far better than feared should, on its own, support risk appetite. Equity positioning moved the opposite direction anyway. That gap, not the revision itself, is what carries into next week.

Forward Look

Next week is heavy again.

The RBNZ decides Wednesday, with a forecast that points toward a hike to 2.75% from 2.50%, a notable break from the global easing bias elsewhere. The BOC holds its own decision the same day.

Eurozone flash CPI is forecast to jump to 3.3% from 2.9%. US ISM Manufacturing, ISM Services, JOLTS, and ADP all land before Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls, the first full jobs report since this week's revision.

Current policy rates

AUD4.35%
USD3.75%
GBP3.75%
NZD2.50%
EUR2.40%
CAD2.25%
JPY1.00%
CHF0.00%

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