Markets don't move because economic data is good or bad.

They move because the data changes expectations.

This week, expectations shifted in one direction: the global economy continues to prove more resilient than many investors anticipated.

Let's start with the macro picture.

The United States continued to outperform.

Final GDP was revised higher to 2.1%, manufacturing PMI strengthened to 55.7, unemployment claims fell to 215K, and Core PCE met expectations at 0.3%.

None of those releases dramatically changed the outlook on their own.

Together, they reinforced one message.

Higher interest rates are slowing the economy, but not stopping it.

Outside the US, the picture was more mixed.

Australia's CPI slowed to 4.0% y/y, suggesting inflation continues to ease, while employment rebounded sharply with 40.3K new jobs. Canada surprised with stronger inflation, and European PMIs pointed to modest improvements in manufacturing despite weaker services activity.

Growth remains uneven, but recession fears continue to fade.

Central banks therefore face the same challenge they have for months.

Growth remains resilient.

Inflation is easing, but not disappearing.

That leaves little urgency to begin cutting rates.

Now to positioning.

COT data reveals investors are becoming increasingly selective.

AUD shorts deepened (-13K from -4.1K).

EUR longs eased (30.2K from 34.4K).

GBP shorts expanded sharply (-105.7K from -71.6K).

Commodity positioning also shifted.

Gold longs edged higher (181.3K), while oil longs continued to fall (114.6K from 124.5K), reflecting reduced conviction in higher energy prices.

The biggest change came in equities.

S&P 500 net shorts collapsed from -194K to just -35.4K.

That's a significant improvement in sentiment.

Investors aren't becoming broadly bullish.

They're becoming more confident that US equities can continue outperforming while growth remains resilient.

Looking ahead, next week brings another important test.

US Non-Farm Payrolls, ISM Manufacturing, JOLTS Job Openings, Eurozone inflation, and US consumer confidence will all help determine whether this resilience can continue into the second half of the year.

The question is no longer whether higher rates are slowing economies.

It's whether they are slowing them enough.

For now, the data continues to support resilience over recession.

The market is becoming increasingly selective.

And that's exactly where understanding macro fundamentals becomes your edge.

Strengthen Your Edge.

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